Thesis College of Science University of Rizal System-Morong 2024

Natural disasters pose significant risks to communities worldwide, particularly in regions like Tanay, Rizal, where geographic and climatic conditions exacerbate vulnerability. This study, titled "Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Calamity-Prone Areas in Tanay, Rizal: A Regression and Time Series Approach," employs advanced analytical techniques to examine the spatial distribution and temporal trends of disaster risks. Using multiple linear regression and time series forecasting, the research integrates geographic variables such as elevation, proximity to rivers, and population density with temporal data on rainfall to develop predictive models. The findings reveal that rainfall is the most critical factor influencing flood incidents, while elevation is a mitigating element. Barangays with lower altitudes and closer proximity to rivers exhibit heightened vulnerability, whereas higher elevations demonstrate reduced flood risks despite substantial precipitation. Time series analysis uncovers an upward trend in precipitation patterns over recent years, highlighting the influence of climatic changes and the increasing frequency of natural calamities. The study's predictive models, which combine spatial and temporal analyses, achieve high levels of accuracy in identifying areas and periods of heightened disaster risks. These models offer valuable insights for disaster preparedness and resource allocation, allowing local authorities to prioritize interventions in high-risk areas. Furthermore, integrating historical data with predictive analytics underscores the need for proactive, data-driven strategies in mitigating disaster impacts and enhancing community resilience. By addressing the interplay between geographic and temporal factors, this research contributes to the growing knowledge on disaster risk management and provides a framework for evidence-based policy development. The outcomes of the study aim to support the creation of sustainable, resilient communities in Tanay, Rizal, and other calamity-prone regions